A promising start to the year, trade balance reverses
The first quarter of 2026 saw a clear recovery in import and export activities, with total turnover reaching nearly 250 billion USD, a strong increase compared to the same period last year. Notably, imports increased mainly in group of production materials, reflecting demand for raw materials and components to serve export orders in the coming period.
Entering mid-April, import and export picture continued to expand in scale but also revealed new pressures. According to data from Customs Department, as of April 15th, total value of import and export reached 297.06 billion USD, an increase of 24.5% compared to the same period last year; In that period, export reached approximately US$144.6 billion, an increase of 20.3%, while import reached US$152.5 billion, an increase of 28.8%.
Clarifying this development, Mr.Nguyen Anh Son, Director of Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), stated that in the first months of 2026, both exports and imports achieved significant growth.
“Trade deficit during this period is not a cause for concern. This is an objective development, reflecting demand for imported raw materials, energy and components to serve production and business plans at the beginning of the year”, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son emphasized.
According to Mr.Son, after a period of boosting exports to major markets at the end of 2025, export pace slowed down somewhat at the beginning of the year, while businesses increased imports to prepare for new production cycle. “The increase in imports is a signal that production sector is operating positively”, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son said.
This is also a concrete manifestation of shift in traditional growth drivers, as clearly indicated in Conclusion of the 2nd Central Committee Conference, in which exports continue to play a crucial role in promoting economic growth.
However, geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East are directly impacting global supply chains and transportation costs. “About 20% of oil and gas passes through this region. When conflicts occur, transportation and transit costs are affected and these impacts can persist even after situation calms down”, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son commented.
Following Central Committee's direction, expanding export potential
Looking at current developments, it can be seen that import and export are entering a different phase than before. With rising input costs, fragmented markets and constantly challenged supply chains, potential for growth is no longer about being "faster" but about being "more secure".
Short-term trade deficit pressure, when viewed in the right context, is not just a matter of trade balance, but a test of the economy's capacity for production organization and input control. When majority of raw materials, energy and components remain dependent on external sources, every fluctuation in global market immediately translates into increased domestic costs.
Conversely, ability to maintain export momentum depends not only on orders, but also on Vietnam's position in supply chain. If Vietnamese goods remain in low-value segment, facing pressure on price and standards, the faster they move, the more likely they are to run out of steam.
This is precisely issue raised in Conclusion of Second Plenum of the 14th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, which called for a shift in growth model towards improving quality, increasing added value and reducing dependence on external factors.
Therefore, question now is not how many more markets to open, but rather redefining direction of exports: which market segment to target, what advantages to leverage and how to reduce dependence on external factors. This is also key to maintaining a proactive stance in an environment where volatility has become the norm.
Based on operational experience of the first few months of the year, Director of Import-Export Department believes that the biggest pressure currently lies not in orders, but in factors beyond control of businesses. With transportation costs not yet subsiding and energy supply affected by geopolitical conflicts, all input costs for export activities are pushed up, leading to risks in delivery schedules and efficiency.
In this context, operational requirements no longer stop at balancing exports and imports, but shift to closely monitoring every market fluctuation, from freight rates and product flows to partner policies. Responding promptly to these changes has become crucial for maintaining export stability.
Notably, growth potential no longer lies solely in expanding markets, but in ability to reorganize goods flows in a more flexible manner. When traditional transport routes are under pressure, redirecting markets, diversifying transport methods or utilizing less affected routes will help reduce risks and sustain growth.
This approach is also consistent with the central government's direction on market diversification, leveraging trade agreements and proactively adapting to external fluctuations.
From a business perspective, need to enhance adaptability is more evident than ever. When costs and risks can change rapidly, choosing partners, transportation methods and consumer markets is no longer a single decision, but becomes a decisive factor in export effectiveness.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong